科技板塊 · 市況簡評

2線智能手機末路窮途

 

 

# 2369酷派集團,,樂視成為酷派集團控股股東:

單一最大股東Data Dreamland於今日與Leview Mobile訂立協議,同意出售其持有的公司約5.51億股,佔已發行股本約11%,每股作價1.9元,總值約10.48億元。配售價較收市價溢價24.18%。交易完成後,Data Dreamland持有公司的股權由20.23%降至9.23%。而Leview Mobile持股量則由17.9%增至28.9%,成為單一最大股東。港交所權益披露資料顯示,Data Dreamland由酷派主席郭德英等人以信託方式持有,而Leview Mobile為樂視創辦人賈躍亭旗下公司。

 

2016525日:

《香港經濟日報》報導,酷派(02369)發聲明否認將獲第二大股東樂視提出全購,又指公司目前無收到股東關於收購的任何消息,網上流傳消息不實。酷派又稱,因受制於與奇虎360的不競爭協議,故未有與樂視全面合作,而有關協議已於422日完結。

 

2016125

折讓15%203 籌最多7.36億元

 

2015921日,與奇虎360達和解合資持股降至25%

與奇虎360全資附屬Tech Time進行建設性的討論後,雙方已達成和解協議,並期待有日後合作及協作機會。

 

201598日,奇虎360突然反枱

指酷派(02369)違反競業禁止義務,從而要求對方回購合營公司股權,索價近15億美元(117億港元);其所指的「違反競業禁止義務」乃酷派引入近日當紅的樂視(Letv)為第二大股東。

 

201572日,樂視入股酷派(02369.HK),持股18%,每股作價3.508元,成第二大股東

雙方就此召開記者會。被問到雙方合作惹奇虎360不滿,酷派常務副總裁兼財務總監蔣超表示,與樂視的談判兩年前已開始,早於與奇虎360設合營一事,而奇虎360亦得知雙方的合作並表示支持。他相信各方可形成產業聯盟,奇虎及樂視對集團來說同樣重要,可互補優勢。

 

 

大股東都算賤,供供股先出貨。

 

IDC稱,第一季度,​​中國智能手機出貨量比去年增長2%,達1.026億部,市場變得日益飽和,增長主要受換機需求的推動。# 2618 TCL 通訊提出私有化;# 0992 聯想集團,收晒皮;小米失去不少市場;2線智能手機已是夕陽工業,樂視入股不知如何轉型?

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科技板塊 · 策略

業績報告 (3):# 0543 太平洋網絡

 

# 0543 太平洋網絡,現價 $3.552011 FY,銷售 +25.9%,每股盈利 $0.262 +13.5%,市盈率 13.6 倍,派息 $0.182 息率 5.1%,每股現金 $0.49

 

網站股,究竟應該如何估值?港股中真是沒有選擇。太平洋網絡 2011 FY

 

「我們整個門戶網站群於二零一一年繼續強勁增長,以太平洋女性網為代表,其收入較去年增長超過一倍。針對女性內容及高質素的優質時尚及美容建議迅速提升其受歡迎程度並掀起追捧熱潮。隨著中國可支配收入穩定上升,我們深信我們的太平洋女性網門戶網站已做好充分準備,以受惠於奢侈品及名牌產品需求不斷增加所帶來的持續增長的廣告機遇。

 

儘管中國汽車行業的增長速度正在放緩,太平洋汽車網的收入亦錄得強勁增長。此清楚反映我們的品牌能力及我們為在線廣告商帶來的前景。雖然預期中國汽車行業仍將維持個位數的增長,我們相信,由於廣告商將印刷及電視的大部分廣告費用分配至新興數碼媒體,我們將仍能夠取得進一步增長。我們已建立的市場地位及不斷提升的知名度為我們提供良機把握此趨勢。

 

本集團的IT門戶網站太平洋電腦網繼續穩定增長。此反映資訊科技公司的廣告支出整體增加,且我們將繼續從中國消費電子市場需求不斷擴大中取得增長。」

 

現金流不錯,員工成本受控,派息不錯。公司往績不錯,是一本萬利的生意。當經濟復蘇時盈利應該有爆炸性增長,亦有被併購可能。科技大方向有利行業發展。

 

死穴是開放競爭,客戶可以快速流失,定價亦可能較難捉摸。暫時覺得不是十分穩健的投資,少量持有中。

科技板塊 · 策略

業績報告 (2):# 0268 金蝶國際­

# 0268 金蝶國際­金蝶從事的企業管理軟件(enterprise resource planning, ERP) 國內企業管理軟件的龍頭之一。由於國內經濟放緩,銀行收緊借貸,企業融資困難,2011年下半年增長遠較上半年放緩。

 

2011 FY,銷售 2022 M +41%,經營虧損 207M,計入政府津貼及退稅項目後利潤有58M,員工成本1440M +66%。雖然是龍頭,一向核心盈利普通,要靠補補貼貼。

 

表面上金蝶在國內經濟回復增長後及小心控制成本,應該可以重奪投資者信心。但是ERP是大型軟件,每個企業要求不盡相同,所以每個project有大量 customization工作要跟尾。所謂customization,在System Integration project中是屬於難以掌握的工作,原因是銷售此類軟件時,銷售員往往以短視及自我利益為原則下以低價入標,最後利潤全無或大幅虧損經常出現。另外有說行業當中有不少黑暗的交易,公司利益可能被不知不覺吞食了。

 

聽聞金蝶國際有意將system implementation部份拆出給外判公司,此舉對公司長遠有利,但是亦有可能會製造另外一個漏洞去渾水摸魚。

 

以上不少情節是個人估計,但是國內IT公司員工成本大幅上升則是事實,金蝶國際能否控制成本是一個大大的問號。

 

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科技板塊

#522 ASM太平洋 (ASM Pacific) 長勝將軍

Repost. Written in 2010 March ?

 

ASM無疑是在香港上市的唯一一間半導體高科技公司。半導體裝配設備業是一個成熟的行業,過去數年ASM不斷掠奪市場份額,將對手遠遠拋離,在後端設備業確立龍頭地位。從7500美元發展成20億美元的王國,中間從沒有偏離本業,亦沒有政府支持,ASM的巨大成就只怕是後無來者了。

 

掠奪市場

在科網熱潮後,ASM漸拋離同業,他們更集中在獨特競爭力的產品上。ASM的策略是提供完全產品,並不偏食,得以降低收入波動性。而在科研費用上,ASM亦拋離對手,此消彼長的情況下,ASM已確立穩固的競爭優勢。

 

行業週期

半導體裝配設備業的行業週期和半導體業不同,它受著半導體的需求,存貨,半導體生產商對市場前景看法,生產技術轉變等等的因素而改變。而在2003年起消費性需求超越商業需求,將整個半導體業的行業週期變短,也令至ASM業績大幅波動。無怪在ASM分析員午餐會上,在林先生無可奉告的回應下,眾大行分析員還要苦苦追問下半年的行業前景。筆者觀察過去數年權威性的預測報告,都跟結果相差很遠,大家可以放棄大行分析員的斷估數據了。

 

公司前景

近期消費性電子產品帶來整個半導體業持續繁榮,半導體業或已進入新紀元。半導體業外判到中國情況持續,ASM前景長遠看好。ASM大約佔後端設備業市場15-16%份額,有很大增長空間。

 

創辦人以及行政總裁林師龐先生於2006年底退休,將接任為行政總裁的李偉光先生已經在集團工作了25年,交接理應暢順。

 

估值

在極波動行業中,單靠估值可能不能給予最好獲利機會。筆者的經驗是用up-trend range trading來操作,找出長線公司成長率,市場對公司信心擺幅,實行高揸低沽:

科技板塊

# 0522 ASM太平洋

A very old article I wrote in 2006 about # 0522, repost since my old yahoo blog was deleted.

 

As mentioned in 2005 annual report:

 

For the assembly equipment market, the rate of change this year will depend on the timing of recovery of the IC packaging segment in adding capacity-related equipment. Most pundits currently project a negative growth for 2005 ranging from 2-22% and expect a double-digit increase again in 2006.

 

Outperformer:

  • outperform industry peers

  • 34.9% revenue lead over closest competitor in 2004

  • 99-04 CAGR is 14.3% while the closest is 7.4% and the average is 2.3%

 

 

Drivers:

 

Biz drivers:

In 2004, increaing popularity of hand-held electronics goods, the semiconductor market expanded 24%-29% in revenue, while the assembly and packaging equipment market increased by 44-49% in 2004.

 

Blooming in consumer electronics

Technoloy drivers: size of packages, advanced technologies

Packing type: direct attached > surface mount > through hole

30 micron pad pitch capability

dual bond head capacity

Cost drivers: automations

integration of assembly and packing steps

 

The only company to manufacture equipment for all major steps in backend processes

 

 

Projection:

IC Unit volume compound annual growth rate 10.55% from 2003-2008 (2004 Electronic Trend Publication).

Backend market grow from 3423M USD in 2004 to 4685M USD in 2009. (~8%) (ASMI FY2005 Q1 report).

Forecast

 

2000

Semiconductor Equipment Turnover Profit

Revenue growth Revenue

Growth

Market +37% +80%

Forecase – (5-7)% -20%

 

2001 Market -32% -70% -60.9% -78.6%

Forecast +6-10% +1%

(+50% in 2002)

 

 

2002 Market +1-2% – (9-30)% +18.3% +23.1%

Forecast +12-13% +15-28%

 

 

2003 Market +12-17% +25-32% +41.1% +88.2%

Forecast +17-29% +38-40%

(+20-35% for 2005)

 

2004 Market +24-29% +44-49% +47.0% +87.1%

Forecast +0-9% – (2-22) %

(>10% in 2006) (> +10% for 2006)

 

 

 

I have just gathering the information from ASMI 2005 Q1 report

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=ASMI&script=1200

and the recent ASMPT reports.

 

In the recent years, ASMPT is an outperformer:

  1. It is #1 in the backend market since 2002.

  2. 34.9% revenue lead over closest competitor in 2004

  3. From 1999-2004 CAGR is 14.3% while the closest competitor is 7.4% and the market average is 2.3%. It means that ASMPT has eaten up other competitor’s market by provided better products.

  4. Looking at Page 7 of the above report, it shows the assembly market is an upward trend since mid of 2001 and is closed to the revenue of 1997.

 

(cont..)

 

The growth of the assembly and packaging market is driven by:

 

Biz drivers: new demand by users

  1. In 1999-2000, strong demand on PC secotr, internet applicances, telecommunication investments [ Basically the internet fever ]

  2. In 2004, increaing popularity of hand-held electronics goods
    [ basically the MP3 fever, new mobile phone, media players, …]

 

Technoloy drivers: size of packages, advanced technologies

    1. Here Moore’s Law helps to force the chip maker to purchase new equipment to reduce size and increase capacity

    2. Environmental requirement

 

Cost drivers: automations, integration of assembly and packing steps

 

As mentioned in 2005 ASMPT reports:

For the assembly equipment market, the rate of change this year will depend on the timing of recovery of the IC packaging segment in adding capacity-related equipment. Most pundits currently project a negative growth for 2005 ranging from 2-22% and expect a double-digit increase again in 2006.

 

(cont..)

 

 

Forecast and the actual results

 

 

Semiconductor Equipment Turnover Profit

Revenue Revenue

 

 

2000 Market +37% +80% +111% +327%

Forecase – (5-7)% -20%

 

2001 Market -32% -70% -60.9% -78.6%

Forecast +6-10% +1%

(+50% in 2002)

 

 

2002 Market +1-2% – (9-30)% +18.3% +23.1%

Forecast +12-13% +15-28%

 

 

2003 Market +12-17% +25-32% +41.1% +88.2%

Forecast +17-29% +38-40%

(+20-35% for 2005)

 

2004 Market +24-29% +44-49% +47.0% +87.1%

Forecast +0-9% – (2-22) %

(>10% in 2006) (> +10% for 2006)

 

 

In the above table, there are some observations:

    1. The forecast by the authority was accurate in the trend but not very much on magnitude.

    2. In 2002, ASMPT was doing exceptionally good, as comparing to the competitors and the overall market.

 

 

(cont..)

 

Geographical distribution

 

In the recent years, China is becoming the world factory in consumer electronics. It shall explain the trend of the geographical distribution sales figures of ASMPT, as the factories were moving from HK, Taiwan and other regions to China. Personally I believe this relationship may not be useful for the analysis. Of course if the factories are moving to China continuously, and ASMPT is not growing at the same rate in China, it is a big problem.

 

Recent updates

 

In the recent webcast of ASMI (www.asm.com), it was reported that ASMPT :

1. Sales in March is significantly better than Feb and Jan.

2. A strong momentum will be seen in Q2.

3. 2005 recovery will not surplus the record high 2004 result.

 

I have not listened through the webcast yet. However, $2.28 EPS may be a reasonable guess at this moment.

 

P 2000-07 27-34.8 (peak)

P 2000-12 9-13.4 (low)

P 2001-9 9-14.4 (low)

P 2001-12 13.8-16.5 (rebound after 9-11)

P 2002-2 18.4-22.5

P 2002-12 13.8-16.5

P 2003-12 30-34 (whole year going up, because local market is chasing industry stocks)

P 2004-08 23-27 (following market trend and drop to the bottom in Aug)

P 2004-12 27-28.8 (rebound a little bit at the market is focusing on blue chips)

P 2005-02 29.5-34.9 (industrial stocks were back in early 2005)

 

Long term trend

 

The market size estimation of backend products will grow from 3424 to 4685, from 2004 to 2009 (see page 6 of the presentation). The CAGR is 6.5%. I have not searched other data. But from page 7 of the slide, it seems the market size of backend product is cyclical and not increased much if you count from 1997.

 

The ASM net sales of backend products grow from 149 to 399 euro in mil, from 1995 to 2004. The CAGR is 11.5%. While from 1999 to 2004, the CAGR is 11.4%.

But if I use the data from annual report, the CAGR of the net sales is 10% to 15%.

 

The CAGR of the net profit is 14%(1995-2004) to 24% (1999-2004).

 

It seems ASMPT was outperforming the market consistently in the past 10 years. The trend of the net sales is heading north, while the medium term trend affected by the economic cycles; and more important, whether any killer applicances are developed:

 

Year 2000-2001: The killer applicances are Internet related. A peak followed by a deep valley, due to over-investing on internet systems.

Year 2004-: The killer applicances are hand-held systems. The net sales climb up quickly, due to the blooming of handheld applicances.

 

Will this trend continue in the next several years? If so, how can we trade this stock to maximize our profit ?

 

(cont)

 

Now I assume that the ASMPT net sales will enjoy 12% growth annually in the long run. The net profit growth rate of ASMPT is 19% (midway between 14% to 24%). The peaks and valleys swing the stock price curve of ASMPT as the econmy changes, new killer applicance emerges, over-investment and etc. We shall be benefited from the market by restricting the acceptable PE of ASMPT between a range of reasonable value. Here the PE is calculated using projected earning of ASMPT (19% since Jan 2000). In other words, the stock price shall go back to the normal projected growth. Any deviations from the projected growth is an opportunity to buy/sell this stock.

 

  1. CAGR of net profit is 19%

  2. The reasonable PE may be between 12-20

  3. The base line price is Jan 2000.

 

Then I use Excel to plot the projected “reasonable” price again the actual stock price. Issue a sell signal when projected PE > 20 and a buy signal when PE < 12.

 

The end result looks satisfactory. It shows:

  • Should sell on Jul 2000, Aug 2000, Sep 2000

  • Should buy at the end of 2000 until May 2003

  • Should sell on Jan 04, Feb 04

  • Should buy on Aug 04

  • Should sell if today’s price over $45, and buy if less than 27

 

 

If change the growth rate to 16%, PE 10-18, then you should sell it when the price go beyond 35.7 and buy it when it is below $20.

 

(cont)

 

This model may not be useful at all. It has too many assumptions, and choose a different base line will change everything. But I find it interesting that it matches some of my thoughts.