市況簡評 · 數據分析

市況簡評:大市一周 2017-05-27 ,大價之年

Market recovered from Trump attack quickly and making new high, only on index. North water keep flowing in but slowing down, may be due to holiday effects. Short selling ratio is falling.

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400 698 got attacked, only 700 stand strong in tech sector. PRC property, insurance, banks, container, airline, paper, REITs, casino making new high:

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US: making new high, oil collapse, lead by tech and utilities:

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A shares, well …. speechless as usual:

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Market breadth: Index making new high while market breath flat, A share is weakest:

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I guess right now most people realized that this bull cycle is index bull cycle as I mentioned early this year: https://clcheung.wordpress.com/2017/02/18/%e5%b0%8f%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%ef%bc%9a%e8%b2%b7%e5%ae%9a%e9%9b%a2%e6%89%8b/

Value vs Growth cycle, which I have discussed before, and it seems it is best visualized with the relative strength of HSI and MUPI. MUPI is the measure of all stocks performance.

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Here: 2007 first half, index were not moving, while on average whole market going up 50%, HSI/MUPI made a bottom near July 2007.

Then 直通車 news drove the index up and since then MUPI was not able to make a new high. A peak was formed on Oct 2008, as everyone dump their stocks and some parked to index only.

From Oct 2008 to March 2010, a massive recovery from panic, MUPI lead and made the ratio a bottom on March 2010.

2011 was a bad year as most stocks collapse, market prefer index again, till September 2012.

The growth cycle moved on from September 2012 to May 2015. I think all of you still remember your portfolio going up 30-60% at least in only two to three months in 2015.

Market correction started mid 2015, and index cycle started till now.

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For US market, may be a comparison of S&P500 and Russell 2000 a good tool for this purpose:

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Well, it does not show similar pattern at all.

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For A share, seems the market structure is totally difference, the MUPI for A share has been always stronger than index.

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Except since 2016, situation changed a little bit:

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Now all three markets point to a value cycle, it becomes interesting.

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市況簡評

市況簡評:大市一周 2017-05-20

US Trump attack on Thursday, but market holding well. MUPI doing better on last two days and recovered most loss on Friday. However, the AD ratio continues to below 50 on most days while HSI making new highs. North water keep flowing in and in an up trend. Short selling ratio is falling.

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2018 got attacked and money switch from high tech to basic material, shipping, 4s, PV, IPP:

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US: Trump political concerns and money flow into utilies and oil rebound:

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A shares, market reverse the national team trades, blind fry 可燃冰 sector:

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Market breadth: A recover a bit, US decline and HK flat:

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市況簡評

市況簡評:大市一周 2017-05-13

Old economy take over high tech, 2018 being attacked with several placements by mid caps. REITs, insurance, medical, education sectors new high. Index moving up 3-4% while on average non-index stocks stalled. This is index year.

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US: Apple, commodities lead ; in general not strong this week.

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A shares, national team support the index, all the rest eat shit:

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Market breadth: Only index look strong, market breadth not encouraging:

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