市況簡評

市況簡評

# 0917 新世界中國,現價 $2.902012 FY,每股盈利 $0.35,市盈率 8.3 倍,派息 $0.07 息率 2.4%

 

# 0708 新傳媒,現價 $0.232012 FY,銷售 +9.0%,每股盈利 $0.046 -43.4%,市盈率 5.0 倍,派息 $0.01 息率 4.3%

 

# 0047合興集團,配股@ 0.37 x 1905M股,折讓 14%。另外,賣方同意轉讓420M股股份予一家香港慈善機構,該慈善機構致力培育有意於年輕時參與社區服務及貢獻社會的青年領袖。

 

# 8240 中國城市軌道科技,現價 $0.762012 FY,銷售 +164.0%,盈利+99.4%,每股盈利 $0.1,市盈率 7.6 倍,派息 $0.025 息率 3.3%,每股現金 $0.25

 

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# 0420福田實業,盈警,預期業績會錄得虧損。預期本集團於截至二零一二年八月三十一日止六個月及十二個月的業績會錄得虧損。

 

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# 00392 北京控股,建議向北控水務集團有限公司注入資產。

 

# 0123越秀地產,# 0405越秀房產信託基金,越房以每單位3.3元(較停牌前價格折讓約8.6%)元配售9.045億個單位,籌3.85億美元(約29.85億元),另額外配售3000萬美元單位給內地投資者或向母公司越秀地產發行遞延單位。另外,越房亦會額外向中國人保資產管理配售5000萬美元單位,合共集資4.65億美元(約36.27億元),但須待內地有關機構批准。換言之,相比此前通函中以3.56元作為說明性價格、配股集資34.8億元人民幣的預想,本次向機構投資者融資所獲定價、金額分別減少了7.3%15.8%(即5.5億元)。

 

# 2368鷹美,今年322日,主席鍾育升及其秘書就調查涉及懷疑觸犯防止賄賂條例被廉署扣留,有關鍾氏代表公司贈送一份禮物作為收取利益的回報報。於518日,鍾氏及秘書獲廉署無條件自其擔保中釋放。

鍾氏一直完全否認指控,而公司相信指控乃無理的投訴,董事會完全信納鍾氏之誠信並無污點,故事件並未影響公司一般業務及日常營運。

 

# 03666 小南國,小南國(03666.HK)大股東增持50萬股 擬續增持。

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市況簡評

市況簡評

 

 

# 0933 光匯石油,現價 $1.622013 1H,銷售 +76.8%,每股盈利 $0.041 -78.0%,市盈率 19.8 倍,不派息。

 

# 2662 奕達,現價 $0.202012 FY,銷售 -15.1%,每股盈利 $-0.11,市盈率 -1.8 倍,不派息。

 

# 2689 玖龍紙業,現價 $3.902012 FY,銷售 +11.4%,每股盈利 $0.375 -27.9%,市盈率 10.4 倍,派息 $0.0861 息率 2.2%

 

# 8086 易寶,現價 $0.652012 FY,銷售 +634.0%,盈利+84.0%,每股盈利 $0.0245 +5.6%,市盈率 26.5 倍,不派息。

 

# 0535 星獅地產,私有化 again 0.43.

 

# 0806惠理集團,於二零一二年八月三十一日的未經審核管理資產總值約為72億美元,比7月多1億,表現落後。

智能交易系統

Box indicator – Volatility

 

 

Volatility of individual stocks is very different from each other. Even the same stock, the volatility changes from time to time. So if a fix set of parameter is used define the box criteria, sometimes there will be too many signals, or some important signals are lost..

 

# 00703佳景集團,with fix box rules:

 

image

 

With dynamic rule, the center box showing up. It reflects the fact that the volatility increasing at that time, so the box parameters shall adjust to it.

 

image

 

# 0052大快活集團,too many signals generated, as the box parameters not fitting this low volatility stock:

 

image

With dynamic self-adapting rule, noisy signals are removed:

 

image

Uncategorized

市況簡評

 

 

# 1079 松景科技,現價 $0.112012 FY,銷售 -10.6%,每股盈利 $-0.0289,市盈率 -3.7 倍,不派息。

 

# 2888渣打集團,落實向紐約付罰款26億。

 

# 3818中國動向,中國動向CFO請辭。

 

# 3813寶勝國際,# 0551裕元集團,四供一,發行10.65-10.72億股,大股東裕元包銷;供股價0.491元,較今日收報有溢價5.59%。集資淨額5.18-5.21億元,擬用作償還貸款、擴充業務及一般營運資金。

 

# 1177中國生物製藥,主席謝炳於三個月內,兩度轉讓其持股予妻子鄭翔玲,並喪失其控股股東地位。

公司指出,謝炳昨日於無代價的情况下,轉讓5億股中國生物製藥股份予鄭翔玲。完成後,謝炳僅以個人名義及另外兩家公司,持有公司9.1億股,即18.4%股權,並不再是公司控股股東。轉讓前,謝炳持有公司28.5%權益。

至於謝炳的妻子謝翔玲,轉讓後則持有公司12億股,即24.3%的股權,成最大控股股東。謝炳曾於今年6月轉讓7億股予鄭翔玲,當時其持股量自42.7%降至28.54%。公司表示,鄭翔玲欲持有相關權益作投資用途。

 

# 00082 第一視頻,第一視頻張力軍解讀中國手游25日赴美上市

 

# 00125 新興光學,盈警,料中期純利同比大跌。

 

# 2319蒙牛乳業,近年來不斷被曝出各種質量問題的蒙牛乳業(2319),據內地傳媒指其有意大規模更換包裝,這是自其成立13年來首次,主要希望藉改裝改善「形象」。不過,分析師普遍認為這是治標不治本的方法。

智能交易系統

Seasonal Stock Market Trend

 

 

 

The seasonal market trend is also an interesting area to explore. There are different seasonal trends to consider, like the January effect, holidays, monthly, day of the month, week of the month, day of the week, …

 

Here a weekday performance indicator shows the weekday effect for HSI. Recently the Friday is so strong and Monday is relatively the weakest shows the market expectations on China QE policy over the weekend.

 

image

 

On the other hand, # 00823 領匯房產基金 show the weakest performance usually on Friday.

image

 

Different indicators can be created for other seasonal trends. Explore them systematically and graphically should help to improve the timing of in and out in the market.

智能交易系統

Hidden Cycles

 

 

The theory of dominant cycles exists in stock prices is always a big question to investor.

  1. Does it exist ?

  2. If exist, is the cycle length always remains the same ?

  3. If the shape of the cycle is not symmetric and changes from time to time ?

 

The following chart shows the mid-term cycle dominate cycle of HSI with first two harmonics:

 

image

The dominate cycle of HSI with first harmonics:

 

image

The dominate cycle of HSI without harmonics:

 

image

 

In fact the dominate cycle of HSI has been stable for the last 12 months. If the cycle remains not changed, the next peak of HSI will be seen around mid to end of October this year.

 

 

The dominate cycle of SHCOMP with first two harmonics, seems less predictable using the recent data:

 

image

 

 

The dominate cycle of 02618 with first two harmonics:

 

image

智能交易系統

Arthur Merrill’s M and W Patterns for Hong Kong stocks

Reference:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B4khs9dLs4lIWm44OTc4NnE1VzQ

 

Using 5 points of ZigZag filtered stock prices, it forms total 32 patterns of M and W:

 

imageimage

 

 

Higher the numbers, the stronger the stock price trend, e.g. 00081 :

image

 

Corresponding M and W patterns can be mapped to traditional patterns, such as Uptrends, Downtrends, Triangle, Head and Shoulders, and etc. :

image

 

 

 

Downtrends:

image

 

 

 

For Hong Kong stocks, the following statistics is calculated from 2007 to 2012-09-14 with ZigZag filter at around 5%, and filter out small cap below 2000M:

 

M Statistics:

M1 : Occurrence 10.2%

Mean Rise 17.5% StdDev 10.4% Min 5.8 Max 50.4

Bottom: 541 @ 42%

M2 : Occurrence 5.8%

Mean Rise 15.8% StdDev 9.0% Min 5.7 Max 44.2

Bottom: 0 @ 0%

M3 : Occurrence 10.0%

Mean Rise 15.2% StdDev 8.8% Min 5.6 Max 44.0

Bottom: 300 @ 23%

M4 : Occurrence 5.1%

Mean Rise 15.4% StdDev 9.1% Min 5.5 Max 47.8

Bottom: 0 @ 0%

M5 : Occurrence 3.3%

Mean Rise 14.7% StdDev 8.2% Min 5.6 Max 43.4

Bottom: 99 @ 8%

M6 : Occurrence 1.7%

Mean Rise 14.5% StdDev 7.5% Min 5.7 Max 38.9

Bottom: 0 @ 0%

M7 : Occurrence 6.6%

Mean Rise 15.4% StdDev 8.8% Min 5.7 Max 43.9

Bottom: 184 @ 14%

M8 : Occurrence 1.9%

Mean Rise 15.6% StdDev 9.2% Min 5.7 Max 45.3

Bottom: 0 @ 0%

M9 : Occurrence 5.2%

Mean Rise 15.1% StdDev 8.2% Min 5.7 Max 41.1

Bottom: 150 @ 12%

M10 : Occurrence 4.7%

Mean Rise 14.8% StdDev 8.1% Min 5.6 Max 41.1

Bottom: 0 @ 0%

M11 : Occurrence 5.1%

Mean Rise 15.9% StdDev 9.1% Min 5.6 Max 43.6

Bottom: 0 @ 0%

M12 : Occurrence 6.8%

Mean Rise 15.8% StdDev 9.7% Min 5.6 Max 48.7

Bottom: 10 @ 1%

M13 : Occurrence 4.3%

Mean Rise 16.0% StdDev 9.5% Min 5.6 Max 45.2

Bottom: 0 @ 0%

M14 : Occurrence 5.9%

Mean Rise 14.6% StdDev 8.6% Min 5.6 Max 43.7

Bottom: 10 @ 1%

M15 : Occurrence 10.8%

Mean Rise 15.3% StdDev 8.8% Min 5.6 Max 43.5

Bottom: 2 @ 0%

M16 : Occurrence 12.4%

Mean Rise 15.8% StdDev 9.3% Min 5.6 Max 47.5

Bottom: 1 @ 0%

 

 

W Statistics:

W1 : Occurrence 11.4%

Mean Drop 14.7% StdDev 8.4% Min 5.5 Max 39.9

Top:0 @ 0%

W2 : Occurrence 10.4%

Mean Drop 13.8% StdDev 7.1% Min 5.4 Max 35.1

Top:1 @ 0%

W3 : Occurrence 6.1%

Mean Drop 12.5% StdDev 6.0% Min 5.4 Max 30.4

Top:3 @ 0%

W4 : Occurrence 4.7%

Mean Drop 14.4% StdDev 7.8% Min 5.4 Max 36.5

Top:0 @ 0%

W5 : Occurrence 6.3%

Mean Drop 13.0% StdDev 6.5% Min 5.4 Max 32.5

Top:5 @ 0%

W6 : Occurrence 4.6%

Mean Drop 13.4% StdDev 7.1% Min 5.4 Max 35.6

Top:0 @ 0%

W7 : Occurrence 4.8%

Mean Drop 12.9% StdDev 6.2% Min 5.4 Max 32.3

Top:1 @ 0%

W8 : Occurrence 5.6%

Mean Drop 11.8% StdDev 5.6% Min 5.3 Max 28.2

Top:187 @ 14%

W9 : Occurrence 1.9%

Mean Drop 12.9% StdDev 6.3% Min 5.4 Max 29.5

Top:0 @ 0%

W10 : Occurrence 6.3%

Mean Drop 11.8% StdDev 5.5% Min 5.4 Max 28.7

Top:187 @ 14%

W11 : Occurrence 1.9%

Mean Drop 11.5% StdDev 5.9% Min 5.4 Max 31.4

Top:0 @ 0%

W12 : Occurrence 3.2%

Mean Drop 11.7% StdDev 5.3% Min 5.2 Max 27.2

Top:100 @ 7%

W13 : Occurrence 5.2%

Mean Drop 12.8% StdDev 6.0% Min 5.4 Max 29.1

Top:1 @ 0%

W14 : Occurrence 10.1%

Mean Drop 11.8% StdDev 5.4% Min 5.4 Max 28.1

Top:355 @ 27%

W15 : Occurrence 6.0%

Mean Drop 12.1% StdDev 5.2% Min 5.4 Max 26.5

Top:0 @ 0%

W16 : Occurrence 11.6%

Mean Drop 12.0% StdDev 5.2% Min 5.3 Max 26.9

Top:495 @ 37%

 

Since the average rise and decline after the pattern is quite consistent for Hong Kong stocks, it seems not very useful to use single pattern for buy sell decision. However, as in the original paper, some patterns statistically have much higher possibility to form the bottom or top during the bear and bullish cycle.

 

If a 10% fitler is used, typical patterns to see the top can be found, such as:

xxx + W16 + M16 + W15 + xxx

While M16 W16 are uptrend pattern, W15 is a head and shoulders.

 

image

 

image

 

 

There is about 33% of the top formation is coming from the uptrends + head and shoulders pattern.

 

 

Typical patterns for the bottom can be found, such as:

M1 W2 M4 W4 …

M3 W2 M8 W10 …

Where M1 M3 W2 are downtrends, M4 M8 are inverted head and shoulders:

 

image

 

image

There is about 46% of the bottom formation is coming from the downtrends + inverted head and shoulders pattern.

 

==

The M & W patterns shall be useful for trend seeking, especially for reversals.

市況簡評

市況簡評

 

 

# 0016 新鴻基地產,現價 $107.102012 FY,銷售 +9.3%,每股盈利 $8.37 +0.0%,市盈率 12.8 倍,派息 $3.35 息率 3.1%

 

# 03393 威勝集團,威勝集團(03393)與西門子中國組合營產銷計量數據管理系統

 

# 02628 中國人壽,華富新聞:國壽(2628)8月保費收入按年跌3.25%

 

# 00603 中油燃氣,中油燃氣(00603.HK)1.1億人幣建山東LNG/CNG加氣站

 

# 0293國泰航空,國泰航空(00293)公佈與港龍航空上月合併結算的客、貨運量。數據顯示,8月客運量上升4%,但載客率下降1%,貨物及郵件的運載量則持續錄得跌幅按年減少6.9%

 

# 01101 中國熔盛重工,熔盛重工(01101.HK)江蘇附屬遭民事索償1637萬人民幣

 

# 02238 廣汽集團,廣汽集團(02238.HK)控股股東擬續增持AH股 上限5%

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